Research Paper Series

The Series of Research Papers of the Institute of Statistics of Puerto Rico disseminates manuscripts under development with a statistical approach, internally reviewed by experts and with the potential for scientific publication.
Investigation

Objectives of the Series

Welcome to the Puerto Rico Statistics Institute's Working Paper Series. The Research Paper Series aims at the dissemination of research manuscripts, with a strong focus on statistics. The Series consists of works in progress, with the potential to eventually be published by peer-reviewed scientific journals. Prior to its publication in the Institute's Research Paper Series, each manuscript was submitted by its principal author to the experts and technicians of the Institute of Statistics, and the recommendations that emerged were included in that manuscript.

Previos a su publicación en la Serie de Documentos de Investigación del Instituto, cada manuscrito fue presentado por su autor principal ante los peritos y técnicos del Instituto de Estadísticas, y las recomendaciones surgidas fueron incluidas en dicho manuscrito.

It should be noted that the expressions expressed in the Research Paper Series are exclusively those of their respective authors, and do not necessarily represent the positions or opinions of the members of the Institute or its Board of Directors.

Series Documents

Documento
2014
Horacio Matos-Díaz

This study models the graduation grade point average (GGPA) of 2,407 graduates of the University of Puerto Rico at Bayamón from 1995-96 to 2000-01. Empirical evidence shows that: (a) female and public school students obtain significantly higher GGPAs and exhibit advantages when compared to male and private school students, (b) the probability of accessing a determined boundary in the distribution of GGPAs is significantly and nonlinearly related to the admission policy, (c) GGPAs exhibit an uptrend that varies inversely and significantly with graduates’ quality, and (d) the probability of being in the lower bounds of the GGPAs distribution increases to the extent that graduates exceed graduation required time.

Documento
2014
Luis A. Avilés

Scientists and intellectuals, government officials, journalists, and the general media have asserted that almost every single Caribbean island is overpopulated. Most of these claims are based on the relatively high population density of these islands in comparison to the rest of the countries of the Americas. This article investigates if population density is an appropriate indicator of overpopulation in the specific context of the insular Caribbean. The main sources of empirical information used in this article are: (1) national and regional population densities; (2) the human development index produced by the United Nations Development Program; and (3) a population projection of a “standing room-only island.” The article concludes that assertions of Caribbean island overpopulation, based on high population density, are methodological and statistical artifices or mathematical miscalculations. These artifices are the result of poor methodological choices: (1) the selection of geographic methodological scales;

Documento
2015
Alberto L. Velázquez Estrada
Alexis R. Santos Lozada

This paper examines the impact of prospective demographic trends in the population structure of Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico has experienced the first population decline in recorded history, which brings forth the question of the future of the population of the island and what are the policy implications of the transformations of the population. A Cohort‐Component Projections was used, incorporating rates of changes for fertility and mortality based in historical patterns. The net migration rates were calculated using the Residual Method or Vital Statistics Method, and three different scenarios were explored: (1) Full Migration, (2) Half Migration and (3) Zero Migration.